Looking for a Statesman

I'm tired of hearing the phrase "the german/french/english/australian/danish/polish/hungarian/etc Trump"

Politics predictions.

It’s going to be a bad time for the Europeans for a little bit. It’s going to be a good time to be American. Everywhere you look in the world, everyone is playing out the same subconscious fantasy. I am watching twin peaks with my girlfriend on a streaming service with ad breaks. Every 20 minutes we are shown a political ad for a man she explained to me, is supposed to be “the Australian Trump”. He is head of the liberal party or something.

The trump moment the last month has been extraordinary, and the speed and “you can just do things” approach of the new administration has been one of those things that happen in history and culture, that happens so fast, that you don’t even notice it until months or years later. A dam has been broken and things are different know. The rules are up in the air and the future belongs to whoever moves the fastest. That will by definition not be the European political class.

The next four years belongs to the new administration, and I think there’s a good chance at 8 more years of Vance after that. Things happen and then we reason and rationalize them after the fact, and Trump 2.0 has realized the power of this philosophical insight: the counter weight to that is “you can just do things”.

The US is on a cultural upstream momentum. The relationship between the US and Europe has been, for 80 years, imitation. America is seen as the source of energy, and the European mindset is that of bitter envy, on the scale of the political class (I refuse to call them “elite”), and down to the pedestrian level. People talk a lot about soft power lately, with Mr. Musk beginning to cut the pursestrings of the CIA funded retardation abroad. If you have never been, or grown up in, the European mainland, you underestimate how effective it has been and continue to be. When I was growing up 30 years ago, I was a novelty because I could read and speak English as a child. Today, when I was showing my Australian girlfriend around, she made the comment that everyone younger than 30 speaks “American”. She thought everyone in the streets speaking English were American tourists, because the entire zoomer-and-lower generations are totally americanised now, from watching video game streamers. Western Europe has been completely and utterly gekolonisiert. My native language is dead and I am one of the last native speakers.

The next period of European politics will be the political class slowly coming to terms with a new world order, that is already in place. This is not the famed and feared “multi-polarity”. It is accepting that the system you were licking spit for and sucking up to in the american beurocracy, has lost, and the more you display loyalty to the system, the worse it will be for you and your constituents. European leaders will take years to accept this new reality, and this is the reason that Europe will be really left behind in the dust. Much is said about the disruption and confusion of the managerial class in America, the permanent bureaucracy. Well, downstream from those, you have European politics. But there is no European Trump. There is no french, german, or anything else, Trump, and if there is going to be any, it will be 8-10 years in the future. There are no real movement or organization or leaders, it will not be “like” America, it will be utterly different.

The big question on everyone’s mind is Russia-Ukraine. Case in point - in America, that’s already a dead story, no one gives a shit about it, and its a foregone conclusion how things are going to end there. Project Ukraine is over, it was a massive, complicated, US project, and it’s run its cause, and it will end like everyone with hald a brain predicted in 22. But in the European media space, it continues to be total unhinged hysterics, paid operators and propagandists arguing for a defensive first strike against Russia, who will invade Normandy any day now. Conveniently all their hysterics all argue in favor of giving more money to the government and destroying the middle class.

During Project Ukraine, the middle managers of Europen nations, formally called “leaders”, saw their chance to have their own Iraq foreverwar, to centralize power and earn private wealth. They, like hyenas, tried and are trying, to jump on the corpse of the US military industrial complex project, while the predator has left a little meat on the bones of it. There is still some money to be made by squeezing Ukraine to the last Ukrainian, and the real danger to Europe, is the European leadership not realizing what time it is, and that the game has changed. You don’t impress daddy America by showing how willing you are to send your own constituents to die in a ditch any more. That was the old paradigme, and it is dead. The danger to Europe is the chaos they will cause before they realize that the higher ups they are trying to impress, to get cushy jobs and career advancement, have all been fired, and there is a new regime in place, and a new order to suck up to. The best thing for the immediate future in Europe is Mr. Musk utterly destroying the flow of money into Europe. The European states are integrated wheels in the American Machine, and European politics are US employees.

I saw a Xeet yesterday talking about covid, saying how “2020 was a weird year where if you knew how to read you lost your job and all your friends”. When I came to Australia, everyone I met were talking about the cost of living crisis, induced by the covid era. In mainland Europe, we had the total social and economic impact of covid twice. Once from lockdowns and propaganda, and a second time from being used as an economic battering ram against Russia in 2022. It is way worse than you think. The Ukraine propaganda is unchallenged, and its just the same thing as covid. Or the global war on terror in 2001. People are bought in hook line and sinker. All these moments we’ve gone through on “the internet”, of decoupling from “traditional media” and living in this new paradigm. The European has not caught up to even the fundamentals.

The political moment in Europe is confusion, catching up, and decoupling from the dead American regime of the past 60 years. This will be different in different countries, and it will be generational and slow. People over 35 are bought in, and they will not change their mind, until the change has already happened, and they wake up one day and realize, “wait I have actually ALWAYS loved and supported the new regime that was installed yesterday. well time to go to work".

Everything that happens on the internet happens in the real world 5 years later. Europe is currently on its first year of the European Biden Era. While America restores itself and cleans house, Europe is having its last round of looting. But unlike America, we do not have anyone or anything ready to take the wheels once the looting is over - yet. But there are faint embers and glimmers of hope. Something will happen. My only point here is really about time. It’ll take a hot minute.